The Capex Web — who owes whom, and who is underneath it all

Layer one is receipts. Amazon’s total contractual commitments are $883.6 billion as of 30 September 2026 — nearly double their December level, with long-term debt almost tripled in nine months. Microsoft carries $364.6 billion in leases signed but not yet commenced, up from $106.2 billion a year earlier. Meta’s uncommenced leases are $355.7 billion. Alphabet discloses $924.4 billion in maximum purchase commitments and another $98.5 billion in contingent backstops and guarantees. None of this is a forecast. It is a calendar: dated, sized, and payable on schedule regardless of who wins anything.

The reshuffle is a contest — it takes years, the winner is uncertain, the prize keeps moving. The bill is a calendar.

The web is circular by construction. Amazon holds all of Anthropic’s convertible notes, is its largest shareholder, and is owed at least $110 billion by it. Broadcom leases Anthropic $161.2 billion of equipment and lends it up to $42 billion usable only to pay that rent. Nvidia guarantees OpenAI’s rent — capped at $105 billion — and backstops CoreWeave’s unsold capacity. Alphabet books $16.8 billion of backlog from Crux AI, a venture it co-formed and backstops. The supplier books the customer’s spending as revenue while holding its equity. Customer, collateral, and rescuer weaken together.

Underneath it all sits the same public, on every side. Households hold a record 48.2% of their financial assets in equities. Vanguard and BlackRock are the only holders above 5% named in Microsoft’s proxy. Pension funds hold the bonds — one New York pension fund has already sued a builder over what it says it wasn’t told. The equity holder, the bondholder, and the SPV lender’s beneficiary are, in large part, the same retirement saver wearing three hats.

Layer two is the thesis — labeled as one. These obligations were priced against a demand curve that requires near-total, search-shaped adoption arriving on schedule. That curve is an assumption, not a filing. The map does not claim to know what demand will be. It shows what demand would have to be — and that nobody gets to presume it. Whether the thesis grades out is the 2027–28 prints’ job. Whether the obligations exist is already settled.

STANCE, AS STATED BY THE AUTHOR: NOT AN EXPERT, NOT A CLAIRVOYANT, NOT CLAIMING RIGHT. A SYSTEM WAS READ TO ITS TERMINAL STATES AND PUBLISHED WITH THE RECEIPTS ATTACHED SO ANYONE CAN CHECK THE INPUTS.